Job Market Shows Signs of Weakening as Consumers Turn Gloomy_我的网站
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The number of job openings fell to 8.8 million at the end of July, down from the prior month’s revised 9.1 million in a sign that the economy is downshifting, the Labor Department reported on Tuesday.
The drop brings the number about 2.5 million below the 11.4 million available jobs of a year ago.
Openings fell in professional and business services, down 198,000; health care and social assistance, off by 130,000; and state and local government, including education, where the combined losses totaled 129,000. There was a strong increase in information industry jobs, up by 101,000; and in transportation, warehousing and utilities, where openings increased by 75,000.
“Now it is taking a bit longer for jobseekers to find a job,” said Julia Pollak, chief economist for ZipRecruiter. “There’s meaningful slack in the job market, but it is still a historically tight job market. Overall, I still see the U.S. labor market as understaffed.”
The government will report the monthly jobs number for August on Friday with expectations for a gain of about 168,000 jobs.
“Investors should expect a softening labor report this Friday, further cementing the thesis that the Fed is getting close to finishing its tightening cycle,” said Jeffrey Roach, chief economist at LPL Financial.
Meanwhile, the Conference Board’s consumer confidence index for August found a pullback as Americans grew more concerned about rising prices of gasoline and groceries.
The present situation index – a reading of how consumers assess the current economy – fell to 144.8 from 153.0 in July. The expectations index, a forward-looking measure, declined to 80.2 from July’s bump to 88.
“Consumer confidence fell in August 2023, erasing back-to-back increases in June and July,” saidDana Peterson, chief economist at the business organization. “August’s disappointing headline number reflected dips in both the current conditions and expectations indexes. Write-in responses showed that consumers were once again preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for groceries and gasoline in particular.”
“The pullback in consumer confidence was evident across all age groups – and most notable among consumers with household incomes of $100,000 or more, as well as those earning less than $50,000,” Peterson added. “Confidence held relatively steady for consumers with incomes between $50,000 and $99,999.”
Consumers expected higher interest rates to come, while also lowering their assessment of the probability of a recession.
Also Tuesday, home prices rose 0.9% in June, according to the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller index. Prices were unchanged on a year-over-year basis.
"U.S. home prices continued to increase in June 2023," said Craig J. Lazzara, Managing Director at S&P DJI. "Our National Composite rose by 0.9% in June, and it now stands only -0.02% below its all time peak from exactly one year ago. Our 10- and 20-City Composites likewise each gained 0.9% in June 2023, and stand -0.5% and -1.2%, respectively, below their June 2022 peaks.”
"As we've noted previously, the recovery in home prices is broadly based,” Lazzara added. “Prices rose in all 20 cities in June, both before and after seasonal adjustment. Over the last 12 months, 10 cities show positive returns. Otherwise said, half the cities in our sample now sit at all-time high prices.
“Today’s market offers buyers the frustrating combination of low inventory and high home prices,” said Realtor.com economic data analyst Hannah Jones. “Many existing homeowners remain on the sidelines of the market, content to stay put as mortgage rates reach 20-year highs.”
“As a result, home shoppers are seeing fewer existing homes for sale and facing more competition for the homes available,” Jones added. “Builders have started to pick up construction activity to fill this gap, but remain cautious as affordability challenges continue to stifle buyer demand.”
。 【环球网科技综合报道】7月20日消息，据Tom's Hardware报道，SK 集团会长、大韩商工会议所会长崔泰源针对当前全球内存市场价格、产业供需及人工智能发展配套保障等行业热点发表观点，直指当前居高不下的内存价格偏离合理区间，持续高价或将拖累消费电子产业发展，同时预警 AI 高速扩张背景下电力、线缆等基础设施供给缺口凸显。
崔泰源直言，当前内存市场长期维持高位价格并不正常。若芯片高价态势持续传导至终端产品，个人电脑、智能手机等消费电子产品售价将同步抬升，催生 “芯片通胀” 现象。
二 | 终端成本上涨会直接压制大众换新意愿，削弱消费电子行业底层需求，对全产业链稳定运行形成冲击。
在行业经营策略层面，他提出，半导体企业应主动适度让利、扩大产能供给，以长远视野维护市场良性发展。他形象比喻，只顾短期攫取高额利润如同一次性摘光果树果实，并非可持续产业发展战略，唯有兼顾市场需求与产业增长空间，韩国半导体行业方能实现长期稳健发展。
针对 AI 算力带来的存储需求变革，崔泰源分析，人工智能产业爆发式增长正在重塑内存供需格局。市场预判明年 AI 相关内存需求增幅可达 60% 至 100%，但全球各大存储厂商短期内难以同步匹配对应幅度产能扩张，当前存储供给端供需矛盾十分突出。
与此同时，他预判，即便后续内存产能紧张局面逐步缓和，AI 产业发展的制约瓶颈将转移至能源电力配套领域。
三 | 现阶段电力设备供给已普遍短缺，伴随全球数据中心持续扩容，配套电缆、线缆原材料等上下游产品，后续也将面临供不应求的发展现状，能源基建或将成为 AI 产业下一步发展的核心约束条件。（纯钧）。
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