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美债救市升级？特朗普放狠话：必要时动用军队_我的网站

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一 | 　　【导读】特朗普语出惊人，美国军队可能会被用于更大规模的干预，以降低美国国债的收益率　　大家好，简单关注一下美债的小插曲。

二 | 　　美国总统唐纳德·特朗普表示，他甚至可能动用军方对债券市场进行“干预”。

三 |

The International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) and the American Asia Society holds the third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue in Beijing, China on August 25, 2026. Photo: IDCPC's WeChat account
The third China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue was held in Beijing on Tuesday, bringing together government officials, scholars and business representatives from both countries for discussions on constructive strategic stability and practical cooperation.
Co-hosted by the International Department of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (IDCPC) and the Asia Society, the dialogue was attended by about 40 representatives. Participants included officials from relevant Chinese government departments and local governments, experts from think tanks and universities, as well as figures from US strategic and business circles, including John L. Thornton, co-chair of the Asia Society Board of Trustees.
Under the theme "Constructive Strategic Stability - Practical China-US Cooperation in the New Era," the participants held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges, according to the IDCPC's release on its WeChat account on Tuesday.
Addressing the dialogue, Liu Haixing, head of the International Department of the CPC Central Committee, said the two sides have recently followed the direction set by the two heads of state, taken practical steps to strengthen communication and dialogue, advanced a positive agenda and achieved notable results.
Liu called on the two countries to continuously enlarge common interests and make cooperation the anchor of positive stability. He urged the two countries to uphold mutual benefit and reject zero-sum games so that competition remains within bounds, to seek common ground while managing differences, and observe the bottom line of no conflict and no confrontation to achieve lasting peace and stability.
Participants discussed ways to enhance political mutual trust, expand economic and trade cooperation, and explore cooperation in artificial intelligence, science and technology, CCTV News reported.
Established in 2023, the China-US Track 1.5 Dialogue operates between formal government-to-government diplomacy, known as Track 1, and purely nongovernmental exchanges, known as Track 2. The second dialogue was held on June 13, 2024, during which participants held candid, in-depth and constructive exchanges around the theme of "sharing perspectives and finding solutions on key and urgent issues."
As a channel involving both government and nongovernmental participants, the Track 1.5 mechanism can help China and the US communicate more effectively, identify common ground and better understand the consensus reached by the two heads of state, Zhou Mi, a senior research fellow at the Chinese Academy of International Trade and Economic Cooperation, told the Global Times on Tuesday.
It can also help translate the consensus into greater mutual understanding and concrete action, Zhou said.
Discussions on AI at this year's dialogue could help the two sides identify shared interests despite existing frictions and technological challenges, creating opportunities for practical cooperation and laying the groundwork for follow-up efforts, he noted.
Wang Yiwei, a professor at the Renmin University of China's School of International Studies, told the Global Times on Tuesday that the Track 1.5 dialogue serves as a bridge between Track 1 and Track 2, allowing participants to discuss sensitive issues and explore policy space while conveying frontline assessments and feasible proposals to decision-making departments.
Liu outlined practical pathways for China-US cooperation in the new era. First, the two sides should uphold mutual respect, peaceful coexistence and win-win cooperation, steer China-US relations to overcome the "Thucydides Trap," and create a new paradigm of major-country relations.
Second, the two countries should jointly shoulder their responsibilities as major powers, make constructive interaction an important driver of international cooperation, address global challenges together and inject greater stability into the world, Liu noted.
Third, they should expand exchanges and cooperation in trade, public health, agriculture, tourism, people-to-people ties, law enforcement and cooperation between localities, thereby strengthening the resilience of bilateral relations and working toward a better future, Liu said.
Overcoming the "Thucydides Trap" fundamentally rejects the notion that conflict between major powers is inevitable, Wang Yiwei said. It reflects an effort by China and the US to pursue a path different from the historical confrontation between an established power and a rising one.
Such a model does not seek to avoid competition altogether, but to ensure that competition has boundaries, differences remain manageable and cooperation retains sufficient space, Wang Yiwei said.
To put this approach into practice, the two countries should respect each other, avoid crossing red lines concerning core interests and reduce the risk of strategic miscalculation. They should expand areas where their interests converge and establish regular cooperation mechanisms on global issues such as climate change, public health, food security and AI safety, turning shared responsibilities into joint action, he noted.
As the world's two largest economies, China and the US should recognize that many global challenges cannot be effectively addressed without coordination between them, particularly at a time of intensifying competition. Constructive engagement is therefore not a temporary expedient but a long-term responsibility that major countries should undertake for the world, Wang Yiwei said.
The dialogue came a day after China's top political advisor Wang Huning met with US delegates attending the event in Beijing on Monday.
During their meetings, the US side said that the US-China relationship is at a special juncture, adding that the sound rapport between the two heads of state constitutes the most valuable and important part of bilateral ties. The US side agrees that both sides should act on the consensus of building a constructive US-China relationship of strategic stability, advance corporate cooperation, expand people-to-people and cultural exchanges, guard against risks such as those posed by artificial intelligence, and deliver benefits to both countries and the rest of the world, according to Xinhua.
。这一表态出现在记者追问美国财政部长贝森特为压低飙升的美债收益率所采取的措施时，不过特朗普的回答令人颇为困惑。　　美国财政部周三出乎华尔街意料地宣布，从下个月开始，将把长期美国国债的回购规模“至少提高一倍”。这一举措最初推动长期美债价格大幅上涨，使30年期美债收益率从几天前创下的19年高位明显回落，但此后收益率又重新走高。　　周五下午，在登上“空军一号”前，特朗普在停机坪接受记者提问。一名记者问他，是否是他要求贝森特出手干预债券市场，以及这一行动是否出自他的主意。

四 | 　　特朗普回答：“没有，完全没有。他是个非常有能力的人，是他自己想这么做的。他很擅长这个。他对债券和利率有很好的感觉，是一种非常好的天然直觉。然后他就这么做了？对。”　　记者随后指出：“但从那以后，收益率又涨回去了。你有没有和他讨论过其他形式的干预？他接下来还会采取其他措施吗？”　　特朗普回答：“我们有很多种干预方式，这只是其中一种。

五 | ”　　随后他补充道：“终极的干预手段，是我们的军队。如果我们必须使用军队，我们就会使用。

六 | ”　　贝森特周四接受采访时曾表示，特朗普政府拥有一个用于稳定债券市场的“大型政策工具箱”，但他拒绝具体列举还有哪些可用手段。

七 | 　　不过，在特朗普发表上述言论后，目前甚至已经很难判断，他和贝森特所说的究竟是不是同一个“工具箱”。　　近期美债收益率持续上升，市场主要担忧包括美国财政赤字、不断膨胀的政府债务、高企的通胀，以及科技公司为大规模投资人工智能而掀起的发债潮。　　当前市场讨论的焦点是：如果美债收益率再次走高，贝森特还会动用哪些工具？以及如果美国财政部的“火力”存在上限，美联储是否最终会被迫出手。　　分析师表示：“财政部干预面临的根本问题是，这需要花钱。目前，财政部主要是通过减少长期债务、增加短期债务的方式为这些操作融资。但由于联邦债务总额受到债务上限约束，财政部最终还是会耗尽弹药。如果财政部耗尽火力，而收益率再次飙升，美联储可能会感到不得不出手购买这些债券。如果这种情景发生，那么美联储主席沃什关于缩减美联储资产负债表的内部讨论，可能就完全失去现实意义。美联储非但无法退出财政领域，反而可能被进一步拖进去。”　　财政部下一步可能采取的措施之一，是调整长期国债的发行结构。

八 | 　　美国财政部最近发布的季度债务发行政策声明中，对相关措辞进行了调整，由此引发市场大量猜测：财政部官员可能考虑减少最长期限国债的拍卖规模，同时，如果未来需要增加发债，则更多集中在融资成本更低的短期和中期国债。　　法国资产管理公司Amundi全球固定收益首席投资官格雷瓜尔·佩斯克表示，美债回购虽然能够向市场释放信号，但仅靠回购并不足以扭转收益率的整体方向。　　他还表示，为了巩固美联储抗击通胀的信誉，美联储可能仍需要加息。　　高盛集团策略师也提出了类似观点。他们认为，无论财政部采取多少措施，真正能够压低美债收益率的最好办法，还是让通胀降下来。　　这一问题也将成为美联储主席凯文·沃什下周在堪萨斯城联储杰克逊霍尔经济政策研讨会上发表主题演讲时必须面对的重要议题。